イギリス離脱問題 間に合うのか？

17年3月から2年後の19年3月29日にEUから離脱することになっているイギリスは現在、日々迫る離脱交渉期限との戦いに頭を悩まされています。

世間や交渉に携わる者はみな、間に合わないだろうと見ていて、

イギリスやEUも全部は間に合わないと考えており、

関税の実質てきな期限は20年末まで伸ばしたものの、それでもイギリスとしてはさらに延長したいと考えてます。

EUとしてが、もともと離脱する際は2年以内と決まっているし、

自分で出ていくって言ったんだからちゃんとやってねというスタンスは見受けられます。

本日のBloombregでもイギリスは離脱期間延期を行うべきだという記事が上がっております。

以下Bloomberg Europea記事引用。

要約すると、イギリスもEU側もみんな離脱までの期間が短いと思っているので、イギリスは交渉期間の延期をすべきだ。

一方で来週には離脱期間について最終化されると予測されている。

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The U.K. is running short of time to reach a full deal with the European Union and should consider seeking an extension of next year’s withdrawal deadline in order to complete the work, the U.K. Parliament’s cross-party Brexit committee said. 

The U.K.-EU talks are due to end by October, the deadline set by both sides, with Britain leaving the bloc at the end of next March. The committee said that if substantial aspects of the future partnership remain unresolved at that time, the government should seek more time to ensure an agreement “sufficiently detailed and comprehensive” can be reached. 

“In the short time that remains, it is difficult to see how it will be possible to negotiate a full, bespoke trade and market access agreement, along with a range of other agreements,” including on the Irish border, the committee said in a report released Sunday. 

The proposed transition period set to start after the mandatory March 29, 2019, exit should also be capable of of being extended, if necessary, the committee recommended. Under EU rules, countries seeking to exit the bloc have two years to work out details after formal notification. The U.K. is the first government to invoke the so-called Article 50 process. 

‘Critical Stage’

“We are now at a critical stage in the negotiations, with just seven months left to reach agreement on a whole host of highly complex issues,” said Hilary Benn, a Labour party member and panel chairman. “While the committee welcomes the progress that has been made in some areas, the government faces a huge task” when the next phase of talks begin.

The committee also said “little progress” has been made on a solution to maintain an open border between Ireland in the EU and Northern Ireland in the U.K., without instituting checks or adding physical infrastructure if the U.K. leaves the customs union and single market.

“The government must now come forward with credible, detailed proposals as to how it can operate a ‘frictionless border’ between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland because at the moment, the committee is not persuaded that this can be done at the same time as the U.K. is leaving the single market and the customs union,” Benn said.

U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis will meet the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels on Monday. A summit of EU leaders starts on Thursday. Davis has predicted a deal on a transition period will be finalized next week.
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ここまで、離脱期間が足りないとわかっていて、離脱期間が変わらなかったら為替への影響は必須か？市場は既にそれを見越した円高になっているのか？

離脱問題は来週と3月に大きく方向性が見えそうです。