アメリカ関税 EUは対象外
ロンドン株式市場が前日比３６ポンド安の７０００で推移してます
そのほか構成銘柄の８割が下落中
米中の貿易摩擦を懸念しての下落となっており、本日21時発表されるイギリス中銀の政策金利の発表を控えて様子見の状況です。
結果がよければ、昨日の指数結果や離脱交渉前進などで急上昇し、
悪ければ、アメリカの貿易戦争の懸念と合わさり、大きく下落の可能性があります。
アメリカ貿易戦争については、本日EUは関税対象外になると予想されると報じられており、直接てきな影響はEU,イギリスにはないと思われます。
ただ市場は米中の貿易戦争となると、どこまで影響が広がるか見えにくいので、警戒している段階です。
【EUの関税への懸念】
・アメリカは3月23日までに関税対象外の国を絞っている
・中国はおそらく5兆円規模の関税がかかる
・EUへの関税はアメリカにしっぺ返しが来ることになるので対象外になると思われえる
以下、Bloomberg記事引用
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The European Union believes it’s on track to be exempted from imminent U.S. tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum, dialing down the risk of a trans-Atlantic trade war.
European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom ended two days of talks in Washington with the hope of a U.S. pledge to exclude the EU from the import duties of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum, four EU officials said Thursday on the condition of anonymity. The levies initially were set to take effect on Friday.
“Cecilia Malmstrom had a good, very fruitful visit to Washington,” commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Thursday. “We have good opportunities now to solve the issue and stabilize, or calm down, the problem.”
EU's Katainen Says Chances of Trade Negotiation With U.S. Look Brighter
Katainen discusses trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S.
The upbeat assessment came as the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, briefed ambassadors from the bloc’s 28 national governments about the issue in Brussels. EU leaders are scheduled to discuss the results of Malmstrom’s visit to Washington at a gathering later Thursday in the Belgian capital.
President Donald Trump earlier this month announced the protectionist measures on national-security grounds, signaled Canada, Mexico and Australia would be excluded and gave his top trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, scope to work out exemptions for more countries by March 23.
Not exempt is China, which may also face an additional $50 billion of U.S. tariffs over intellectual-property violations, a person familiar with that matter said. The value of the tariffs was based on U.S. estimates of damage caused by intellectual-property theft, the person said.
Thursday Announcement
The EU expects the Trump administration to make an announcement later Thursday about an exclusion for the bloc from the metal tariffs, two of the European officials said.
The EU has been scrambling for a waiver while warning that a failure to gain one would lead to a tit-for-tat response on 2.8 billion euros ($3.5 billion) of imports of U.S. goods including Harley-Davidson Inc. motorcycles, Levi Strauss & Co. jeans and bourbon whiskey.
The EU also said that, without an exemption, it would file a complaint to the World Trade Organization against the Trump administration and introduce “safeguard” measures to prevent metal shipments from other parts of the world to America from being diverted to the European market and flooding it.
Lighthizer said on Wednesday that the government could delay imposing the metal tariffs on some countries while negotiations take place on a more permanent exclusion and that he’s aiming to have waiver deliberations wrapped up by the end of April.
In her last-ditch push to win a carve out for the EU, Malmstrom met U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Lighthizer during her visit.
“There are prospects to start some sort of negotiating process,” Katainen said. “In trade wars there are no winners, only losers. And the losers are normal citizens who will lose their jobs.”
The Trump administration is linking a permanent exemption for Europe from the metal duties to the establishment of a high-level group on trade relations whose goal will be to reach a “quick and neat” deal on tariffs, including for goods such as cars, according to one of the EU officials.
Malmstrom was told in Washington that this idea doesn’t represent a revival of longstanding plans for a broad EU-U.S. market-opening accord that Trump shelved after taking office in January 2017, the official said.
Robert Zoellick, a former U.S. trade representative, said earlier this month that the Trump administration has shown little respect for the multilateral order underpinned by the WTO and views international commerce in terms of individual deals involving national muscle-flexing.
“These guys are playing hardball,” Zoellick told a Brussels conference on March 9. “It fits into the whole notion that they don’t really see the systemic aspects of this. They see it as transactional. They see it as case by case. Clearly that’s how President Trump operates.”
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イギリス雇用統計結果 アメリカ重要指数
イギリスの重要指数の雇用統計がでました。
前回の２．３％を上回る２．４％と良かったものの、
為替市場は明日のFOMC結果をきにしてか若干の円高で動きがあまりみられません。
ドルが前日比ー０．２，３円前後しており世界的にややドル安になってます。
本日２１：３０と２３：００からアメリカの重要指数発表が行われるので、
今日の為替はそこから大きく動きそうです。
イギリス離脱 スペインからジブラルタルについて課題指摘
今朝行われたイギリスとEUの離脱についての会議で、スペイン政府から会議の時間のこり数分でジブラルタルについては未解決だ！と指摘があり、
両国合意できないと安心できないとスペイン政府は懸念しております。
【ジブラルタルとは？】
こんなとこにありスペイン本土ともつながっているイギリスの海外領で、
総面積６．５kmで3万にんほどしか住んでいない小さな半島の先っぽです。
昔はスペイン領でしたが、１７１３年からイギリス領になってます。
主に海外基地としての重要な役割をになっており、イギリス軍が駐留しているみたいです。
こんな島ですが、スペインとの国境はフェンスが設けられてますが、ここを離脱までどうするかが合意内容には入っていないとスペインから指摘されました。
スペインとしては離脱の合意内容について明記されていないため、非常に心配しているみたいです。
今週の金曜にEUが移行案を発表する予定ですが、
スペインとしてはそれまでに、安心したいと言ってます。
イギリスは本会議中に（いきなりなにを言い出すんだスペインと思いながら）合意内容にもジブラルタルのことは含まれると発言しております。
【為替への影響】
問題があり、その問題は解決できそうだ。と市場は見ており、
為替への影響は今のところありません。
以下Bloomberg European記事引用
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The European Union’s plan to endorse a post-Brexit transition deal this week encountered a last-minute hitch when Spain raised concerns about the treatment of Gibraltar.
The Madrid government is worried that the deal, reached between the U.K. and EU on Monday, failed to make sufficiently clear that the 21-month phase doesn’t cover the British territory off the Spanish coast unless Spain explicitly agrees.
The issue has flared up intermittently during the Brexit negotiations and got a new lease of life when, in welcoming the transition deal, U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis said that, in his view, the transition agreement “does cover Gibraltar.”
Spain wants reassurances before it allows EU leaders to issue a statement confirming the transition deal at a summit on Friday, an EU official said. The official played down concerns that the issue will derail the deal.
“No agreement between the EU and the U.K. can apply to the territory of Gibraltar without a bilateral agreement,” the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, told reporters in Brussels on Tuesday. “I know these discussions are under way and are making headway.”
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ポンド指数悪いが離脱結果がどこまで影響するか？
先ほどイギリスの重要指数が発表されました。
【２０日発表のイギリス指数】
・２月CPI ：前月比、前年比ともに予想より0.1％悪い
・２月コアCPI ：前年比 予想より0.1％悪い
・小売物価指数 ：前年比 予想より0.1％悪い
・コア小売物価指数 ：予想通り
・生産者仕入価格 ：前月比、前年比ともに予想より大きく悪い
・生産者出荷価格 ：前月比、前年比ともに予想より0.1％悪い
・コアPPI ：予想通り
・ONS住宅価格 ：前年比 予想より0.1％悪い
ほとんどの項目で悪い結果がでました。
昨日の離脱交渉前進の話題とこちらだどう相殺されるかの展開になりそうです。
また、イギリスは明日も以下の重要指数発表を控えており、
普通なら本日の結果を考慮し市場は控えめになる可能性が高そうです。
離脱結果がどこまで踏ん張れる！？
【21日発表のイギリス重要指数】*日本時間の18時30分
・ILO失業率
・雇用統計
【本日のポンド増減の要因】
プラス要素：昨日合意した離脱交渉
マイナス要素：指数結果、アメリカの関税問題、ロシアスパイ問題、世界的な株価下落の傾向
イギリス EUと離脱交渉に合意 ポンド急上昇A large part of the final exit treaty has also been settled
A large part of the final exit treaty has also been settled
ついにイギリスとEUが離脱方針に合意しました。
下記英文を要約すると、
・離脱期間は19年の3月から20年の12月までに延期
・関税問題やアイルランド国境問題は建設的に進めることができる模様
・アイルランド問題については来週行う
・企業側は（投資施策など検討できるので）混乱はないだろう
・多くの問題は解決できた
・ただし、会議での合意に法的拘束はないので、契約締結を急ぐ必要がある
これを受けポンド円は一時１４９．６８円と前日から2円上昇にせまる急上昇をし、
現在は１４９．２０円に落ち着いております
以下はBloomberg Europeanから引用
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The U.K. and EU have reached a deal on the transition agreement that businesses are keen to get pinned down for the period immediately after Brexit.
Brexit Secretary David Davis and chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier briefed reporters in Brussels. Leaders are expected to sign off on the agreement at a summit on Thursday and Friday.
The U.K. has been trying to secure a written promise from the EU about the transition agreement, according to a person familiar with the situation. Businesses are cranking up the pressure to make the transition as solid — and useful — as possible. They are becoming increasingly aware that any agreement reached at the summit this week will be a political commitment — not legally binding until the final withdrawal agreement is signed early next year.
We are following developments as they unfold. Time stamps are London time.
Businesses Welcome Agreement -- With Caveats (1:07 p.m.)
“Business leaders will welcome the announcement of a provisional agreement on an implementation period and congratulate the U.K. government for heeding the call of business and making it a priority early on,” Allie Renison, head of Europe and trade policy at the Institute of Directors, says in statement. “We are, however, concerned that not enough attention is being given now to the finer details and practical implications of transition.”
But the British Chambers of Commerce was more positive. “While some companies would have liked to see copper-bottomed legal guarantees around the transition, the political agreement reached in Brussels is sufficient for most businesses to plan ahead with a greater degree of confidence,” BCC director general Adam Marshall says in a statement.
It’s also noticeable that the pound has risen significantly against the dollar.
Davis Wants Talks on Future Partnership in April (12:38 p.m.)
Davis wants talks on a trade deal to begin as soon as possible, pointing out that it can’t be signed until after the U.K. actually leaves the bloc. “The most important thing is we need to get on with this now,” he says.
Barnier warns that there’s “a considerable amount of work” to do.
Barnier, Davis Say Gibraltar Leaves EU With U.K. (12:25 p.m.)
Both Davis and Barnier say negotiations are ongoing with between the U.K. and the Spanish government on Gibraltar. Barnier adds that EU member states have indicated their solidarity with Spain’s position.
Davis Says ‘Good Deal Closer Than Ever Before’ (12:21 p.m.)
Davis’s tone is bullish, including on finding a solution for Northern Ireland. “While there’s no agreement on the right operational approach, we know what we need to do and we are going to get on with it,” he says.
On the transition agreement: “It’s December 20, and yes it’s 21 months, which is near enough to the two years we asked for.”
Davis, Barnier Differ on Business Certainty (12:12 p.m.)
David Davis says the transition agreement means businesses now have certainty about the period immediately after Brexit; they can go ahead with investment decisions and be sure there’s no disruption. But Barnier repeated his warning that the transition only becomes a certainty when the final withdrawal agreement is ratified.
Barnier: No Agreement Yet on Northern Ireland (12:03 p.m.)
“We must have a workable and practical solution to avoid a hard border and protect north-south cooperation,” Barnier says. The EU and U.K. agreed to include in the text published today a note on how the Irish issues will be dealt with.”
Barnier says both sides have agreed that the backstop solution for Northern Ireland -- full regulatory alignment with the EU -- must form part of the legal text of withdrawal agreement. Detailed talks on Northern Ireland will take place in coming weeks.
“We are ready to look at all options which allow us to meet our objective in a constructive way,” Barnier says.
Barnier Says Brexit Transition Will Be Time-Limited (12 p.m.)
“The transition will be of limited duration as was requested by the government of the United Kingdom and by the European Union,” Barnier says. Period will be used to finalize future relationship, a period that will be “intense and demanding.”
Barnier Says Large Part of Exit Deal Agreed (11:55 a.m.)
The transition deal has been agreed, and Barnier says a large part of the final exit treaty has also been settled. But he says there’s still much work to do.
Barnier and Davis speak in Brussels, where Barnier presents a chart of all the areas where agreement has been reached.
Transition Deal Reached (11:20 a.m.)
The European Commission will publish an annotated version of the Withdrawal Agreement with color coding later on Monday, according to an EU official familiar with the matter.
Citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and transition will all be color-coded green to mean agreement has been reached, according to the official.
Transition Terms Agreed, Awaiting Sign-Off (10:50 a.m)
U.K. officials consider the terms of the transition to have been agreed, and it’s just awaiting sign-off from Davis and Barnier, according to two people familiar with the situation.
Negotiators have been working through the weekend.
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